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    US Treasury yields for traders: what the 2-year and 10-year yields measure, why price and yield move inversely, the 10y-2y spread and curve inversion.

    Treasury yields are the price of money in the world's main reserve currency. The 2-year yield tracks what markets expect from the Fed; the 10-year sets the tone for long-term borrowing. Together they move gold, the dollar and stocks.

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    1. Learn Macro →The central banks and data releases that move yields.
    2. Macro market hub →The rates backdrop across markets.
    3. Gold and real yields →How the 10-year real yield reaches gold.
    4. US Dollar Index (DXY) →How rate gaps move the dollar.
    5. Economic calendar →CPI, payrolls and FOMC dates that move the 2-year.

    Key terms in plain language

    Treasury note
    US government debt with a maturity of 2, 3, 5, 7 or 10 years that pays interest every six months. The 2-year and 10-year notes are the most quoted.
    Yield
    The annual return a bond pays if bought at today's price and held to maturity, shown as a percentage.
    Price and yield
    They move in opposite directions. When a bond's price falls, its fixed coupon is a larger share of the price, so the yield rises.
    2-year yield
    The yield most sensitive to what markets expect the Federal Reserve to do over the next two years, so it reacts strongly to CPI, jobs data and FOMC guidance.
    10-year yield
    The benchmark for long-term US borrowing costs such as mortgages. It reflects expected short-term rates over ten years plus extra compensation for lending longer (term premium).
    Basis point
    One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%). A move from 4.00% to 4.25% is 25 basis points.
    Yield curve
    A line of yields across maturities. Normally longer maturities yield more than shorter ones, so the curve slopes upward.
    10y-2y spread
    The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, published daily by FRED as T10Y2Y. A negative value means the curve is inverted.
    Real yield
    A yield after inflation, measured by inflation-protected Treasuries (TIPS), for example the 10-year series DFII10. It is the yield most linked to gold.

    Related tools and pages

    Frequently asked questions

    Why does the 2-year yield move so much on Fed news?

    Because its life is short, the 2-year yield is driven mostly by where markets expect the Fed's policy rate to be over the next two years. Inflation and jobs surprises, and FOMC guidance, change those expectations quickly.

    What does an inverted yield curve mean?

    It means short-term yields are above long-term yields, often because markets expect rates to be cut in future. Inversions have come before several US recessions, but the lead time has varied widely and an inversion is not a forecast or a trading signal.

    How do Treasury yields affect gold and the dollar?

    Higher US yields, especially real yields, raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no interest, and can support the dollar when they rise faster than yields abroad. These are tendencies, not fixed rules.

    Where can I see official yield data?

    FRED, run by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, publishes daily series: DGS2 (2-year), DGS10 (10-year), T10Y2Y (the spread) and DFII10 (10-year real yield).

    Sources (5)

    Show

    Official or primary sources used for the facts above. Figures and terms change, so check the source before acting on them.

    1. TreasuryDirect (U.S. Treasury) — Treasury NotesMaturities and interest payments.Accessed
    2. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity (DGS2)Accessed
    3. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity (DGS10)Accessed
    4. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (T10Y2Y)Accessed
    5. Federal Reserve Bank of New York — The Yield Curve as a Leading IndicatorResearch on curve inversions and recessions.Accessed

    Written by Volodymyr Kravchenko from official sources. See the methodology.

    This content is provided for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Affiliate relationships may exist. Always conduct your own independent research before making financial decisions.

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