Oil Price Forecast 2026 and 2027
What the EIA and the World Bank expect for Brent and WTI, what their numbers assume, and how far forecasts can move.
The EIA (9 Sep 2026) expects Brent to average about $91 a barrel in 2026 and $74 in 2027, with WTI about $85 and $70. The World Bank (28 Apr 2026) expected Brent at $86 in 2026 and $70 in 2027. Both expect prices to ease as Middle East exports recover and inventories rebuild. Marlin does not forecast prices; these are the institutions' published views.
Where prices are now
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Forecasts side by side
| Source | Brent 2026 | Brent 2027 | WTI 2026 | WTI 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Energy Information AdministrationShort-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 | $91 | $74 | $85 | $70 |
| World BankCommodity Markets Outlook, April 2026 | $86 | $70 | – | – |
Annual averages, US dollars per barrel, rounded. The World Bank does not publish a WTI forecast in this report.
The EIA's expected path for Brent
What the forecasts assume
- U.S. Energy Information Administration: Middle East exports gradually increase and shut-in production restarts; global inventories, which fell by about 400 million barrels so far in 2026, rebuild into 2027.
- World Bank: The most acute supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict end within the second quarter of 2026 and exports recover to around pre-war levels by the end of the year.
If those assumptions break, the numbers move. The World Bank's own upside scenario, with more damage to oil and gas facilities and a slow recovery of exports, had Brent averaging as much as $115 in 2026.
Why oil forecasts get revised
An oil forecast is a scenario built on today's information. In January 2026 the World Bank expected a much lower Brent price for the year; by April it had raised its 2026 forecast by $26 a barrel after the Middle East conflict disrupted supply. Use forecasts to understand what institutions assume, then watch the data that would prove them wrong:
- Weekly US inventories (EIA): are stocks rebuilding as forecast?
- Tanker traffic near the Strait of Hormuz: are Middle East exports recovering?
- WTI Intelligence: the balance of 15 factors behind the Marlin Score.
What the forecasts mean at the pump
With today's refining, distribution and tax costs, Brent at $91 works out to about $3.73 a gallon of US regular gasoline, and at $74 to about $3.32. Try other prices in the calculator.
Frequently asked questions
What is the oil price forecast for 2026?
The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 expects Brent to average about $91 a barrel in 2026 and WTI about $85. The World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2026 expected Brent to average $86. Both were written during the 2026 Middle East supply disruption.
Will oil prices go down in 2027?
Both forecasts expect lower prices in 2027: Brent about $74 (EIA) and $70 (World Bank), as Middle East exports recover and inventories rebuild. Forecasts are scenarios, not certainties, and they are revised as events change.
Will oil reach $100 again?
Neither base case has Brent averaging $100 in 2026 or 2027. The World Bank's upside scenario, with more damage to oil and gas facilities and a slow recovery of exports, had Brent averaging as high as $115 in 2026. Short spikes above an annual average are always possible.
Does Marlin forecast oil prices?
No. This page reports forecasts published by official institutions, with their dates and assumptions. It is not a prediction or trading advice.
Why do oil price forecasts change so much?
Because they depend on assumptions about supply, demand and geopolitics that can change quickly. The World Bank raised its 2026 Brent forecast by $26 between January and April 2026 after the Middle East conflict disrupted supply.
How often are these forecasts updated?
The EIA updates its Short-Term Energy Outlook every month. The World Bank publishes its Commodity Markets Outlook twice a year, in April and October. We update this page after each release.
Sources (3)
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Official or primary sources used for the facts above. Figures and terms change, so check the source before acting on them.
- U.S. Energy Information Administration — Short-Term Energy Outlook (September 2026)Brent forecast to average $91/b in 2026 and $74/b in 2027; about $90/b in 2H26, $77/b in 2Q27 and $67/b in 2H27. August 2026 Brent averaged $91/b.
- U.S. Energy Information Administration — EIA press release, 9 September 2026Release of the September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook.
- World Bank — Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2026 (press release)Brent to average $86/b in 2026 and $70/b in 2027; upside scenario up to $115/b in 2026; 2026 forecast revised up by $26 since January.
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Volodymyr KravchenkoIndependent market researcher focused on Forex, Gold, commodities, macroeconomic data and AI-powered financial intelligence.
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