Weekly game
EIA Challenge
Forecast the change in US crude stocks before each EIA report, then see how close you were. Points for accuracy and for the right direction, a weekly top 10 and a season table. Free, no account.
EIA Challenge
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Before you forecast
- Last week's EIA figures vs the 5-year average
- The WTI dashboard: 15 factors and the Marlin Score
- The economic calendar with every EIA release date
Rules
What do I forecast?
The week-on-week change in US commercial crude oil stocks excluding the SPR, in million barrels, as published in the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. A draw is negative (for example -2.5), a build is positive.
When do forecasts close?
Five minutes before the scheduled release, usually Wednesday 10:25 a.m. Eastern time (Thursday in holiday weeks). You can change your forecast as often as you like until then. The next round opens as soon as the report is out.
How are points calculated?
100 minus 20 points per million barrels of error (never below zero), plus 20 points if you got the direction right: draw or build. An exact forecast scores 120; 1 mb off in the right direction scores 100.
What is the community consensus?
The median of all forecasts in the round, shown once at least three are in. It is the Marlin community's expectation, not an official or analyst consensus, and not a forecast by Marlin.
Do I need an account? Are there prizes?
No account and no email: you pick a public nickname and your player is saved in this browser. It is a free game for fun and bragging rights, with no stakes and no prizes. Nothing here is investment advice.
Results use the figure in the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Weekly Petroleum Status Report (Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration). EIA does not endorse this game. A game for fun: no stakes, no prizes, not investment advice. Nicknames are public; offensive ones are removed.