Skip to content Free: the Prop Survival Kit for funded-account traders Get it
Marlin

Translate this page

Machine translation by Google, opens in a new tab. Interactive tools do not run in a translated copy: use your browser's built-in translate, or the English page. English is the reference for firm rules and risk warnings.

Try asking

    Answers come from the data and pages on marlinfx.com (AI by Claude). Not investment advice.

    SubscribeGet the app

    By Volodymyr Kravchenko Updated

    EUR/USD · Fed · ECB

    EUR/USD

    The euro against the dollar: what moves the pair, why it mirrors DXY, and the data to watch.

    Forex hubUS Dollar IndexHow to trade forex

    EUR/USD is the price of one euro in US dollars. It sits at the centre of the dollar market: the euro is 57.6% of the US Dollar Index, and the BIS reports the US dollar on one side of 89.2% of all FX trades in April 2025. The pair mainly reflects the policy gap between the Federal Reserve and the ECB, relative growth and inflation, and risk sentiment.

    3D illustration of two glass coins balanced on a seesaw, standing for the EUR/USD Marlin Score. Illustration, not data. Marlin Score EUR/USD Marlin Score Rate gap, real yields, trend and positioning in one number. Open the score

    Live chart

    chart by TradingView. Loading it connects your browser to TradingView, which may set cookies. Privacy

    Open the full chart on TradingViewDrawing tools, indicators, alerts · affiliate link

    Live EUR/USD chart. Powered by TradingView.

    What moves EUR/USD

    The Fed–ECB policy gap

    Decisions and guidance from the FOMC and the ECB Governing Council shape expectations for interest rates on each side. What matters is usually the change in expectations rather than the level of rates.

    Relative yields, growth and inflation

    Differences in inflation and growth between the United States and the euro area feed into rate expectations and, through them, the pair.

    Data surprises on both sides

    US inflation and jobs reports, and euro-area inflation and activity data, tend to move the pair when they differ from expectations.

    Risk sentiment

    The dollar's central role in global finance means broad risk-on or risk-off shifts can move EUR/USD even without euro-specific news.

    How EUR/USD relates to other markets

    These are tendencies observed in market data, not rules. They can weaken or reverse, especially during risk events.

    • US Dollar Index (DXY) Near-mirror image, because the euro is 57.6% of the index.
    • Gold (XAU/USD) A stronger euro often coincides with a weaker dollar, which has often been supportive for gold. It is a tendency, not a rule.
    • Oil (WTI, Brent) Both are affected by the dollar, but the link is variable and often dominated by supply and demand.

    Where to check the current state

    Marlin does not print prices or levels here, because they go stale. Use the live chart above and these official sources. Sources last checked .

    What could change this view

    • A surprise from either central bank, or a change in guidance, would change the policy-gap picture.
    • If the dollar and the euro strengthen or weaken together against other currencies, EUR/USD may move little even in a big dollar move.
    • A liquidity or risk shock can override rate-based reasoning for a while.

    Related to EUR/USD

    Frequently asked questions

    What does EUR/USD mean?

    It quotes how many US dollars one euro costs. If the quote rises, the euro is strengthening against the dollar.

    What moves EUR/USD?

    Mainly the policy and interest-rate expectations of the Federal Reserve and the ECB, relative inflation and growth, data surprises on both sides, and risk sentiment.

    Why does EUR/USD track the US Dollar Index so closely?

    The euro makes up 57.6% of DXY, so EUR/USD movements account for most of the index's movements.

    Is EUR/USD easy to trade?

    It is one of the most liquid pairs, which is why it is a common study example, but leveraged trading still carries a high risk of loss. Practise on a demo account and size positions with a risk calculator.

    How this page was prepared

    Market-structure facts are quoted from the BIS Triennial Survey (April 2025) and ICE; the ranking of individual pairs in the 2025 survey is VERIFY CURRENT DATA and is deliberately not stated. Relationships are Marlin analysis, described as tendencies. Anything that could not be verified against a current official source is marked VERIFY CURRENT DATA. Read the full methodology and editorial policy.

    Sources (6)

    Show

    Official or primary sources used for the facts above. Figures and terms change, so check the source before acting on them.

    1. ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) — U.S. Dollar Index Contracts — FAQDefines the index, its six currencies and weights, and its single historical adjustment.Accessed
    2. Bank for International Settlements — OTC foreign exchange turnover in April 2025Triennial Central Bank Survey; published 30 September 2025.Accessed
    3. Bank for International Settlements — OTC foreign exchange turnover in April 2022Single-currency shares of trades in April 2022; published 27 October 2022.Accessed
    4. Federal Reserve — Federal Open Market CommitteeRole of the FOMC; eight regularly scheduled meetings per year.Accessed
    5. Federal Reserve — FOMC meeting calendars and informationOfficial schedule of FOMC meetings.Accessed
    6. European Central Bank — Key ECB interest ratesThe Governing Council sets the ECB's three key interest rates.Accessed

    This content is provided for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Affiliate relationships may exist. Always conduct your own independent research before making financial decisions.

    AdChart EUR/USD with the right tools

    Multi-timeframe charts, alerts on central-bank days and overlays against DXY.

    Explore TradingView

    Disclosure: Some links on this website are affiliate links. If you use them, we may receive compensation at no additional cost to you. This does not determine our editorial analysis, reviews or comparisons.
    Compare top brokers