Marlin Intelligence
Six public-data drivers, one deterministic score. Data as of 4 Nov 2026
Neutral
-15
Describes conditions, not a prediction.
As of 4 Nov 2026, the EUR/USD Marlin Score is -15 of ±100: Neutral, high confidence. Positive supports the euro.
The US-euro 2-year yield gap rose 0.1 pp to 1.60 pp on 2 Nov 2026. A wider US yield advantage over the euro area is generally a headwind for the euro against the dollar.
10-year real Treasury yield (TIPS) rose 2 bp to 2.62% on 2 Nov 2026. The move is too small to register as a directional signal.
WTI closed 0.9% below its 50-session average on 4 Nov 2026. A rate below its 50-session average is consistent with negative momentum for the euro.
Leveraged-fund net position, euro FX futures fell 2.80 k contracts to -71.60 k contracts in the week ending 27 Oct 2026. The move is too small to register as a directional signal.
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index rose 0.0 pts to -0.5 in the week ending 30 Oct 2026. Tighter financial conditions are often associated with demand for the dollar as a safe haven, a headwind for EUR/USD.
Geopolitical Risk Index (7-day average) rose 9.6 pts to 181.4 in the week ending 26 Oct 2026. Elevated geopolitical risk is often associated with demand for the dollar as a safe haven.
The EUR/USD rate itself is not shown and not scored as a level; the trend factor reads only its distance from its own average. Euro-area growth and inflation surprises are left out until a public, timely source is wired in. Live prices stay in the TradingView charts on the EUR/USD page.
Each factor is capped at ±10 and weighted (rate gap 2.0; real yields and trend 1.0; the rest 0.5–0.8). The score is withheld under 50% coverage. ECB data is modified by Marlin (a spread, its daily change and a distance from an average), as the ECB's copyright notice asks us to state.
One number from -100 to +100 that summarises six drivers of the euro against the dollar: the US-euro 2-year rate gap, US real yields, the euro's own trend, speculative positioning in euro futures (CFTC), risk aversion and geopolitical risk. Each is scored from -10 to +10 by a fixed, published rule and weighted. Positive means conditions are supportive for the euro.
Partly. Both read US yields, risk aversion and geopolitical risk, with the sign flipped. EUR/USD adds the euro-specific positioning and trend, and gives the rate gap the highest weight because it is the best-known driver of the pair.
The score does not need it. The trend factor reads the ECB's euro reference rate only as a distance from its own 50-session average. Live EUR/USD prices stay in the TradingView charts on the EUR/USD page.
No. It summarises current macro data with sources and dates. It does not predict prices and is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Sources: Federal Reserve and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), European Central Bank, CFTC Commitments of Traders, Caldara & Iacoviello GPR index. See Trust centre. Related: US Dollar Intelligence, EUR/USD.
