Marlin Intelligence
Structured market intelligence: 15 factors, one deterministic score, sources and dates on every number.
As of 10 Oct 2026, the WTI Marlin Score is +17 out of ±100, a Neutral regime, with 59% of factor weight backed by current data and low confidence. WTI spot closed at $96.24 a barrel on 6 Oct 2026 (EIA). The score balances 15 factors; it is not a price forecast.
$96.24/bbl
+0.11% on the previous session
Neutral
The balance of 15 factors today. Not a forecast.
+17/ 100
Weighted sum of factor scores, rescaled. A description of current conditions, not a prediction.
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AI-generated by Claude (Anthropic) from the figures on marlinfx.com; can be wrong. Not investment advice, no trade calls. Your question is sent to Anthropic to answer it; don't include personal information. Privacy.
WTI was little changed (+0.11%). No single factor stands out as associated with the session.
Associations between factor readings and the price move, ranked by weighted score. Correlation is not causation.
Marlin Score -1 → +17; regime unchanged (Neutral).
· Inflation data can shift rate expectations, the dollar and yields.
· Weekly US crude, Cushing and product inventories, production and refinery runs.
· Weekly US crude, Cushing and product inventories, production and refinery runs.
· Weekly US crude, Cushing and product inventories, production and refinery runs.
· Rate decisions move the dollar, yields and risk appetite.
· Growth data feeds into the US demand outlook.
· The Fed's preferred inflation gauge; can move the dollar and yields.
Dates from official agency schedules (Marlin calendar). Real, even in sample mode.
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WTI closed 6.1% above its 50-session average on 6 Oct 2026. Price above its 50-session average is consistent with positive momentum.
Brent spot fell 0.06% to $125.44/bbl on 6 Oct 2026. The move is too small to register as a directional signal.
The Brent-WTI spread fell $0.18 to $29.20/bbl on 6 Oct 2026. The move is too small to register as a directional signal.
Nominal broad US dollar index fell 0.33% to 121.4 on 2 Oct 2026. A weaker dollar is often associated with firmer dollar-priced commodities.
10-year Treasury yield fell 6 bp to 5.22% on 8 Oct 2026. Falling yields ease financial conditions.
US commercial crude stocks (ex-SPR) fell 3.2 mb to 424.1 mb in the week ending 2 Oct 2026. A stock draw points to a tighter near-term balance.
Cushing, OK crude stocks rose 0.4 mb to 24.7 mb in the week ending 2 Oct 2026. Builds at the delivery hub are associated with a looser prompt WTI market.
US crude oil production rose 24 kb/d to 13.98 mb/d in the week ending 2 Oct 2026. Higher US output adds supply.
US refinery utilization rose 0.2 pp to 92.70% in the week ending 2 Oct 2026. The move is too small to register as a directional signal.
Data unavailable
Data unavailable. This factor is excluded from the Marlin Score until its source reports a value.
Data unavailable
Data unavailable. This factor is excluded from the Marlin Score until its source reports a value.
Data unavailable
Data unavailable. This factor is excluded from the Marlin Score until its source reports a value.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks fell 0.8 mb to 283.0 mb in the week ending 2 Oct 2026. SPR releases add supply to the market.
Data unavailable
Data unavailable. This factor is excluded from the Marlin Score until its source reports a value.
Data unavailable
Data unavailable. This factor is excluded from the Marlin Score until its source reports a value.
If WTI price structure and US crude inventories stay supportive, the bullish scenario becomes more consistent with the data.
Assumptions
Supporting factors
Would be invalidated by
Key catalysts
The current regime (Neutral, score +17) persists while the factor mix stays broadly as it is.
Assumptions
Supporting factors
Would be invalidated by
Key catalysts
If Cushing inventories and US crude production keep pressuring, the bearish scenario becomes more consistent with the data.
Assumptions
Supporting factors
Would be invalidated by
Key catalysts
Marlin Score, last 40 sessions. Dashed lines mark the regime band edges (±20, ±60).
| Date | WTI | Score | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Oct 2026 | $96.24/bbl | +17 | Neutral |
| 5 Oct 2026 | $96.13/bbl | -1 | Neutral |
| 2 Oct 2026 | $97.89/bbl | +33 | Moderately Bullish |
| 1 Oct 2026 | $99.77/bbl | -9 | Neutral |
| 30 Sep 2026 | $97.18/bbl | +11 | Neutral |
| 29 Sep 2026 | $96.16/bbl | -17 | Neutral |
| 28 Sep 2026 | $99.37/bbl | +5 | Neutral |
| 25 Sep 2026 | $85.23/bbl | -20 | Moderately Bearish |
| 24 Sep 2026 | $95.88/bbl | -1 | Neutral |
| 23 Sep 2026 | $93.38/bbl | -5 | Neutral |
| 22 Sep 2026 | $96.41/bbl | -16 | Neutral |
| 21 Sep 2026 | $96.97/bbl | -14 | Neutral |
| 18 Sep 2026 | $101.44/bbl | -15 | Neutral |
| 17 Sep 2026 | $103.21/bbl | -6 | Neutral |
| 16 Sep 2026 | $103.62/bbl | +4 | Neutral |
| 15 Sep 2026 | $107.02/bbl | +26 | Moderately Bullish |
| 14 Sep 2026 | $102.42/bbl | +23 | Moderately Bullish |
| 11 Sep 2026 | $101.27/bbl | 0 | Neutral |
| 10 Sep 2026 | $103.57/bbl | +22 | Moderately Bullish |
| 9 Sep 2026 | $97.26/bbl | +20 | Moderately Bullish |
| 8 Sep 2026 | $94.21/bbl | +21 | Moderately Bullish |
| 4 Sep 2026 | $92.69/bbl | +20 | Moderately Bullish |
| 3 Sep 2026 | $92.55/bbl | +37 | Moderately Bullish |
| 2 Sep 2026 | $92.15/bbl | +27 | Moderately Bullish |
| 1 Sep 2026 | $91.48/bbl | +26 | Moderately Bullish |
| 31 Aug 2026 | $87.03/bbl | +16 | Neutral |
| 28 Aug 2026 | $84.57/bbl | +9 | Neutral |
| 27 Aug 2026 | $84.81/bbl | +14 | Neutral |
| 26 Aug 2026 | $83.46/bbl | -5 | Neutral |
| 25 Aug 2026 | $83.90/bbl | -15 | Neutral |
| 24 Aug 2026 | $86.34/bbl | -14 | Neutral |
| 21 Aug 2026 | $87.21/bbl | +20 | Moderately Bullish |
| 20 Aug 2026 | $89.75/bbl | +6 | Neutral |
| 19 Aug 2026 | $87.28/bbl | -7 | Neutral |
| 18 Aug 2026 | $86.48/bbl | +19 | Neutral |
| 17 Aug 2026 | $86.04/bbl | -2 | Neutral |
| 14 Aug 2026 | $83.99/bbl | -6 | Neutral |
| 13 Aug 2026 | $82.77/bbl | -22 | Moderately Bearish |
| 12 Aug 2026 | $84.97/bbl | -26 | Moderately Bearish |
| 11 Aug 2026 | $84.77/bbl | -22 | Moderately Bearish |
A single number from -100 to +100 that summarises 15 WTI factors: inventories, Cushing, production, refinery runs, the SPR, WTI price structure, Brent and the Brent-WTI spread, the dollar, Treasury yields, OPEC+ supply, China demand, geopolitical risk, the futures curve and risk sentiment. Each factor is scored from -10 to +10 by a fixed, published rule and weighted.
Bullish is a score of 60 or more, Moderately Bullish 20 to 59, Neutral -19 to 19, Moderately Bearish -59 to -20 and Bearish -60 or less. The regime describes the balance of the data, not where the price will go.
No. It is a transparent summary of current supply, demand and macro data with sources and dates. It does not predict prices and is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
From the U.S. Energy Information Administration (prices, weekly inventories, production, refinery utilization, SPR) and the Federal Reserve via FRED (dollar index, Treasury yields), plus monthly OPEC+, China and geopolitical risk figures entered from their publishers. The dashboard refreshes several times each US trading day; weekly EIA data updates after each Wednesday report.
When a source has no current value, or the data would need a licence Marlin does not hold (for example futures prices), the factor is left out rather than estimated. The score is withheld if less than half of the total factor weight has data.
Every rule and weight: How the Marlin Score works. Weekly inventories: EIA report breakdown.
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