Expectancy and Challenge Odds Calculator
Enter your win rate and reward:risk. See whether the strategy makes money on average, the losing streaks to expect, and how often it would pass a prop firm challenge.
Expectancy = win rate × average win − loss rate × average loss. At 1:3 reward:risk you break even at a 25% win rate, at 1:2 at 33%, and at 1:1 at 50%. A positive expectancy is necessary but not enough to pass a funded-account challenge: losing streaks must also fit inside the daily and maximum loss limits.
Your strategy
Expectancy
+0.22Rper trade on average
Break-even win rate at 1:2.5: 29%. Over 100 trades that averages about 22R, or 22% of the account at 1% risk, if the win rate holds.
Losing streaks to expect over 100 trades: typically 9 in a row, and in 1 run out of 10, 13 or more.
Share of 3,000 simulated challenges (up to 300 trades each)
85%reach the target first · typically after 25 trades
- Target reached
- 85%
- Daily limit hit
- 0%
- Max loss hit
- 15%
- Not finished in 300 trades
- 0%
24 sample paths. Green dashed line: profit target. Red dashed line: max loss (static floor shown).
A simulation of independent trades with a constant win rate, not a prediction. Real trading has costs, slippage, changing conditions and streaks that are not random. Results are the same each time for the same inputs.
Break-even win rate by reward:risk
| Reward : risk | 1:1 | 1:1.5 | 1:2 | 1:2.5 | 1:3 | 1:4 | 1:5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Break-even win rate | 50.0% | 40.0% | 33.3% | 28.6% | 25.0% | 20.0% | 16.7% |
Before spreads, commissions and slippage, which raise the win rate you need.
Example: an FTMO 2-Step phase 1 at 1% risk
10% target, 5% daily and 10% maximum loss (static), two trades a day, 4,000 simulated challenges each.
| Win rate | Reward:risk | Expectancy | Reach target first |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25% | 1:3 | +0.00R | 48% |
| 30% | 1:3 | +0.20R | 78% |
| 35% | 1:2 | +0.05R | 61% |
| 45% | 1:1.5 | +0.13R | 84% |
| 50% | 1:1 | +0.00R | 49% |
| 55% | 1:1 | +0.10R | 88% |
A zero-expectancy strategy reaches a 10% target before a 10% loss about half the time: passing once proves little. Simulation, not a prediction.
How the simulation works
- Every trade risks the same percentage of the initial balance and either loses 1R or wins your reward:risk in R.
- Trades are independent and the win rate is constant. Real streaks are often worse, because markets and traders change.
- The daily limit is measured from the day's starting balance; the maximum loss is static or trails the highest end-of-day balance, as each firm publishes. Losses inside open trades, costs and slippage are not modelled.
- A run ends at the target, at a limit, or after 300 trades. The random numbers are seeded, so the same inputs give the same results.
See the exact limits in the prop firm comparison and how much room you have today in the drawdown calculator.
Trading SMC or ICT with high reward:risk? Read Smart Money Concepts explained: terms, evidence and how to test it.
Frequently asked questions
What is trading expectancy?
Expectancy is the average result per trade: win rate × average win − loss rate × average loss. Measured in R (multiples of the amount you risk), a strategy with +0.2R expectancy makes 0.2 times its risk per trade on average over many trades, and one with a negative expectancy loses money in the long run however good its best trades look.
Is a 1:3 risk-reward with a 30% win rate profitable?
Yes, on paper: 0.3 × 3 − 0.7 × 1 = +0.2R per trade. The break-even win rate at 1:3 is 25%, so the margin is thin: a few percentage points less win rate, or costs and slippage, and the edge is gone.
What win rate do I need at 1:2 risk-reward?
At least 33.3% to break even, before costs. The general rule is break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + reward:risk).
How many losing trades in a row are normal?
It depends on the win rate. In our simulation of 100 trades, a 30% win rate typically produced a longest losing streak of 10 trades, and 1 run in 10 had 15 or more. At 50% it was 6, and 8 or more in 1 run in 10. Size your risk so that such a streak does not hit your loss limit.
Can this tell me whether I will pass an FTMO challenge?
No. It shows how often a strategy with a fixed win rate and reward:risk reaches the target before the loss limits in a simple simulation. Real results depend on whether your win rate is real, on costs and slippage, and on how you trade under pressure.
Does it work for SMC, ICT or price action strategies?
Yes. Any strategy can be measured by its win rate and average win and loss in R. Keep a journal of your actual trades, then enter the numbers you really achieved, not the ones a course promised.
Sources (4)
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Official or primary sources used for the facts above. Figures and terms change, so check the source before acting on them.
- FTMO — Trading objectives1-Step and 2-Step (CFD) targets, daily and max loss, best-day rule, minimum trading days. States that FTMO only provides simulated trading services.Accessed
- FundedNext — CFDs trading objectives (General Rules)Stellar 1-Step and 2-Step (plus Lite and Instant, not compared here): targets, daily and max loss, minimum trading days, time limit.Accessed
- FundingPips Help Center — 1 Step FlexTarget, daily and overall loss, no minimum trading days, and the same simulated-account statement.Accessed
- FundingPips Help Center — 2 Step StandardPhase targets, daily and overall loss, minimum days, no time limit, and the statement that all accounts are demo accounts in a simulated environment.Accessed
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Volodymyr KravchenkoIndependent market researcher focused on Forex, Gold, commodities, macroeconomic data and AI-powered financial intelligence.
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