Marlin Intelligence
Seven public-data drivers, one deterministic score. Data as of 4 Nov 2026
Neutral
+14
Describes conditions, not a prediction.
As of 4 Nov 2026, the US dollar Marlin Score is +14 of ±100: Neutral, high confidence. Positive supports the dollar.
2-year Treasury yield rose 0.0 pp to 4.59% on 2 Nov 2026. The move is too small to register as a directional signal.
The US-euro 2-year yield gap rose 0.1 pp to 1.60 pp on 2 Nov 2026. A wider US yield advantage over the euro area is generally supportive for the dollar.
10-year real Treasury yield (TIPS) rose 2 bp to 2.62% on 2 Nov 2026. The move is too small to register as a directional signal.
WTI closed 1.4% above its 50-session average on 30 Oct 2026. An index above its 50-session average is consistent with positive momentum.
Leveraged-fund net position, US dollar index futures was unchanged to 3.20 k contracts in the week ending 27 Oct 2026. The move is too small to register as a directional signal.
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index rose 0.0 pts to -0.5 in the week ending 30 Oct 2026. Tighter financial conditions are often associated with demand for the dollar as a safe haven.
Geopolitical Risk Index (7-day average) rose 9.6 pts to 181.4 in the week ending 26 Oct 2026. Elevated geopolitical risk is often associated with demand for the dollar as a safe haven.
The ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), EUR/USD and other currency quotes are licensed market data, so Marlin does not restate them and the score does not use price. Trend comes from the Federal Reserve's broad dollar index. Live prices stay in the TradingView charts on the dollar index page.
Each factor is capped at ±10 and weighted (policy expectations and the rate gap 1.5; trend and real yields 1.0; the rest 0.6–0.8). The score is withheld under 50% coverage. The euro-area yield is modified by Marlin (a spread and its daily change), as the ECB's copyright notice asks us to state.
One number from -100 to +100 that summarises seven drivers of the dollar: its own trend, US policy expectations, the US-euro rate gap, real yields, risk aversion, speculative positioning (CFTC) and geopolitical risk. Each is scored from -10 to +10 by a fixed, published rule and weighted. Positive means conditions are supportive for the dollar.
No. The ICE US Dollar Index (DXY) is licensed, so Marlin does not restate it. The trend factor uses the Federal Reserve's broad dollar index, which is published openly. The euro is about 58% of the DXY basket, which is why the US-euro rate gap carries a high weight.
Currency quotes come from brokers and data vendors under licence. The score uses published yields, positioning and risk readings instead. Live prices appear only in the TradingView charts elsewhere on the site.
No. It summarises current macro data with sources and dates. It does not predict prices and is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Sources: Federal Reserve and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), European Central Bank, CFTC Commitments of Traders, Caldara & Iacoviello GPR index. See Trust centre. Related: Gold Intelligence, US Dollar Index.
