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    3D illustration of stacked gold bars beside a glass balance scale, standing for the gold market and its balance of drivers. Illustration, not data.

    Marlin Intelligence

    Gold (XAU) Intelligence

    Data as of 4 Nov 2026

    Market Regime

    How it's set

    Neutral

    High confidence100% data61% agree

    Marlin Score

    +10

    Describes conditions, not a prediction.

    As of 4 Nov 2026, the gold Marlin Score is +10 of ±100: Neutral, high confidence.

    The 6 drivers Rates and the dollar, positioning, geopolitical risk. Tap a group.

    Readings by group

    Scoring rules for each factor
    Rates and the dollarReal yields, dollar, policy, inflation–

    Real yields

    -0.8
    Current
    2.62%
    Previous
    2.60%
    Change
    +0.0 pp
    Why this score

    10-year real Treasury yield (TIPS) rose 2 bp to 2.62% on 2 Nov 2026. The move is too small to register as a directional signal.

    NeutralHigh confidenceSource: FREDAs of
    Previous value dated 30 Oct 2026.

    US dollar (broad index)

    +0.3
    Current
    121.7
    Previous
    121.7
    Change
    -0.1 pts
    Why this score

    Nominal broad US dollar index fell 0.06% to 121.7 on 30 Oct 2026. The move is too small to register as a directional signal.

    NeutralMedium confidenceSource: FREDAs of
    Previous value dated 29 Oct 2026.

    Policy expectations (2-year yield)

    -0.8
    Current
    4.59%
    Previous
    4.56%
    Change
    +0.0 pp
    Why this score

    2-year Treasury yield rose 3 bp to 4.59% on 2 Nov 2026. The move is too small to register as a directional signal.

    NeutralLow confidenceSource: FREDAs of
    Previous value dated 30 Oct 2026.

    Inflation expectations

    +0.4
    Current
    2.30%
    Previous
    2.29%
    Change
    +0.0 pp
    Why this score

    10-year breakeven inflation rate rose 1 bp to 2.30% on 3 Nov 2026. The move is too small to register as a directional signal.

    NeutralLow confidenceSource: FREDAs of
    Previous value dated 2 Nov 2026.
    Positioning and riskCFTC positioning, geopolitics▲ 1

    Speculative positioning (CFTC)

    +0.4
    Current
    105.60 k contracts
    Previous
    104.20 k contracts
    Change
    +1.40 k contracts
    Why this score

    Managed-money net position, COMEX gold rose 1.40 k contracts to 105.60 k contracts in the week ending 27 Oct 2026. The move is too small to register as a directional signal.

    NeutralLow confidenceSource: CFTCAs of
    Previous value dated 20 Oct 2026.

    Geopolitical risk

    +8.1
    Current
    181.4
    Previous
    171.8
    Change
    +9.6 pts
    Why this score

    Geopolitical Risk Index (7-day average) rose 9.6 pts to 181.4 in the week ending 26 Oct 2026. Elevated geopolitical risk is often associated with demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.

    SupportiveLow confidenceSource: GPR IndexAs of
    Previous value dated 19 Oct 2026.
    How the score works Rules, what is left out, questions and answers.
    Not in the score Drivers we leave out, and why.

    Central-bank buying, ETF holdings, the COMEX futures curve and the gold price itself come from licensed or vendor sources, so Marlin does not restate them. They stay out of the score instead of being estimated. Gold price appears only in the TradingView chart on the gold page.

    How each driver is scored Fixed rules, published.
    • Real yields: −0.4 points per basis point rise in the 10-year TIPS yield.
    • Dollar: −5 points per 1% rise in the broad index.
    • 2-year yield: −0.25 points per basis point rise.
    • Breakeven inflation: +0.4 points per basis point rise.
    • CFTC managed-money net long, COMEX gold: +0.3 points per 1,000 contracts added in a week.
    • Geopolitical risk (GPR index): +1 point per 10 index points above 100.

    Each factor is capped at ±10 and weighted (real yields 2.0, dollar 1.5, the others 0.8–1.0). The score is withheld under 50% coverage.

    What is the gold Marlin Score?

    One number from -100 to +100 that summarises six gold drivers: real yields, the US dollar, policy expectations (the 2-year yield), inflation expectations, speculative positioning (CFTC) and geopolitical risk. Each is scored from -10 to +10 by a fixed, published rule and weighted.

    Why is there no gold price here?

    The London gold fixings and futures prices are licensed by their owners, so Marlin does not restate them. Gold price appears only in the TradingView chart on the gold page. The score does not use price.

    What is not in the score?

    Central-bank buying, ETF holdings and the COMEX futures curve: their data is licensed or published by vendors, so those drivers are left out rather than estimated.

    Is it a trading signal?

    No. It summarises current macro data with sources and dates. It does not predict prices and is not a recommendation to buy or sell.

    Sources: Federal Reserve and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), CFTC Commitments of Traders, Caldara & Iacoviello GPR index. See Trust centre.

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